Final 12 Games

[Mr Angry]

Agreed in principle, but form is only part of it.

A good team (i.e. one with lots of good, expensive, players and a big squad) in very poor form may still be much harder team to beat than a lesser team (i.e. one without lots of resources so lesser players, often kids, and a small squad) in the form of their lives.

True, but Everton were in form, and had lots of good, expensive players and we still beat them with a lesser team - and in so doing achieved only our 10th clean sheet of the whole season (that - for me - was the most surprising aspect of that game). In other words, there are far too many variables attached to a footbal match to be able to predict with any certainty, what will happen.

Easy way of proving that; someone should pick say, ANY 10 games from tomorrow, and everybody can check form, positions in the table, sun spots and anything else that floats your boat. The likliehood that ANYONE will correctly predict all 10 results (results mind, not scores) is minimal.

[Svlad Cjelli]

No argument with that - it shows that "form" is granular as well as "how good a team is", with different degrees of both.

It just goes to prove that with so many variables trying to predict accurately base on past and/or recent performances is impossible.

Beacuse if it wasn't, Snowball would be living off the proceeds of his football betting.

[Mr Angry]

Well, I followed his advice last season and lumped on BIG that we would beat Bristol City.......................

[Snowball]

Pssst... it WASN'T ME, who posted that RFC rarely beat "top teams" away
and that Birmingham away, Boxing Day 2008 was the last time.

How's about you lot take it up with THAT POSTER?

[Snowball]

And the whole point of a discussion forum is the discussion part... which means when someone posts up some analysis it will get picked apart, because it'll always have an element of over-simplification to prevent it from becoming some sort of unreadable thesis.

Nothing is ever black and white so once a general over-view is put up the limitations get discussed and people decide whether they think those invalidate the general observation.

Frankly I think it's pretty hard to invalidate the view that we haven't really performed well enough against the better, or form, teams in the division this season.

DEFINE "better"

DEFINE "form teams"

Or do you need to wit for my definition so you can disagree?

And when discussing form do we or don't we consider the form and apparent ability of the opposition?


If we match Forest's "form" over the next 6 games which team has the better form?

Forest are playing far higher-placed teams than Reading AND their opposition is more on form

Average 16th Place Actual - Average 17th Place on Current Form READING
Average 11th Place Actual - Average 10th Place on Current Form FOREST

So say we draw and WDWDW the other games? Who is the better team, which team is more on form?

Obviously Forest because they are getting the same results versus stronger opponents.

But then perhaps we should also consider whether position is Home or Away and consider form Home or Away

It's a farce, argument for the sake of argument.


A 15th Place 19th on Form Barnsley
H 13th Place 02nd on Form Portsmouth
H 24th Place 18th on Form Preston
A 06th Place 20th on Form Forest
A 22nd Place 24th on Form Scunthorpe
H 10th Place 13th on Form Leicester
A 05th Place 10th on Form Leeds
H 23rd Place 23rd on Form Sheffield
A 19th Place 22nd on Form Coventry
H 18th Place 17th on Form Derby

Average 16th Place 17th on Form READING
Average 11th Place 10th on Form FOREST


A 03rd Place 08th on Form Swansea
A 05th Place 10th on Form Leeds
H 11th Place 03rd on Form Reading FLC
H 07th Place 07th on Form Burnley FLC
A 02nd Place 05th Norwich City FLC
H 10th Place 13th on Form Leicester
A 14th Place 04th on Form Bristol City FLC
H 22nd Place 24th on Form Scunthorpe FLC
A 21st Place 16th on Form Crystal Palace FLC

Average 10.5th Place 10th on Form

[Snowball]

I'd argue that an average of actual position and current form position
is a decent measure. And as such RFC are on average playing sides six
places lower than Forest on the run-in

[RoyalJames101]

How's about you lot take it up with THAT POSTER?

Because he doesn't give a fcuk, yet you jump in to try and use your "stats" to back him up.

[S09Royal]

And the whole point of a discussion forum is the discussion part... which means when someone posts up some analysis it will get picked apart, because it'll always have an element of over-simplification to prevent it from becoming some sort of unreadable thesis.

Nothing is ever black and white so once a general over-view is put up the limitations get discussed and people decide whether they think those invalidate the general observation.

Frankly I think it's pretty hard to invalidate the view that we haven't really performed well enough against the better, or form, teams in the division this season.

DEFINE "better"

DEFINE "form teams"

Or do you need to wit for my definition so you can disagree?

And when discussing form do we or don't we consider the form and apparent ability of the opposition?


If we match Forest's "form" over the next 6 games which team has the better form?

Forest are playing far higher-placed teams than Reading AND their opposition is more on form

Average 16th Place Actual - Average 17th Place on Current Form READING
Average 11th Place Actual - Average 10th Place on Current Form FOREST

So say we draw and WDWDW the other games? Who is the better team, which team is more on form?

Obviously Forest because they are getting the same results versus stronger opponents.

But then perhaps we should also consider whether position is Home or Away and consider form Home or Away

It's a farce, argument for the sake of argument.


A 15th Place 19th on Form Barnsley
H 13th Place 02nd on Form Portsmouth
H 24th Place 18th on Form Preston
A 06th Place 20th on Form Forest
A 22nd Place 24th on Form Scunthorpe
H 10th Place 13th on Form Leicester
A 05th Place 10th on Form Leeds
H 23rd Place 23rd on Form Sheffield
A 19th Place 22nd on Form Coventry
H 18th Place 17th on Form Derby

Average 16th Place 17th on Form READING
Average 11th Place 10th on Form FOREST


A 03rd Place 08th on Form Swansea
A 05th Place 10th on Form Leeds
H 11th Place 03rd on Form Reading FLC
H 07th Place 07th on Form Burnley FLC
A 02nd Place 05th Norwich City FLC
H 10th Place 13th on Form Leicester
A 14th Place 04th on Form Bristol City FLC
H 22nd Place 24th on Form Scunthorpe FLC
A 21st Place 16th on Form Crystal Palace FLC

Average 10.5th Place 10th on Form

Seriously, Snowball, why do insist on posting all of these stats? I have no idea what your point is by just looking at this.

[Snowball]

How's about you lot take it up with THAT POSTER?

Because he doesn't give a fcuk, yet you jump in to try and use your "stats" to back him up.

He said we DIDN'T beat top clubs (without defining what "top clubs" meant.

I showed we did.

[Snowball]

And when discussing form do we or don't we consider the form and apparent ability of the opposition?




Average 16th Place Actual - Average 17th Place on Current Form READING
Average 11th Place Actual - Average 10th Place on Current Form FOREST

So say we draw and WDWDW the other games? Who is the better team, which team is more on form?

Seriously, Snowball, why do insist on posting all of these stats? I have no idea what your point is by just looking at this.

I understand it. That's enough for me

[Wimb]

How's about you lot take it up with THAT POSTER?

Because he doesn't give a fcuk, yet you jump in to try and use your "stats" to back him up.

He said we DIDN'T beat top clubs (without defining what "top clubs" meant.

I showed we did.

We haven't beaten Leeds, we haven't beaten Norwich, we haven't beaten QPR, we haven't beaten Cardiff, we haven't beaten Forest.

Stop being so pedantic Snowball, we've beaten Burnley, Leicester, Donny, and a few good teams in the cup but no we haven't done it in the league.

Honestly the length you'll go to just to win an ebeef with Ian is pathetic

[Snowball]

We haven't beaten Leeds, we haven't beaten Norwich, we haven't beaten QPR, we haven't beaten Cardiff, we haven't beaten Forest.
Stop being so pedantic Snowball, we've beaten Burnley, Leicester, Donny, and a few good teams in the cup but no we haven't done it in the league.

The reply was to the statement we haven't beaten top sides away in the last two or so years

Prior to the following dates (so not in the 2-or-so years we won 3-0 away at Champions Wolves
and then managed to beat them at home also

Away 13-01-2010 READING FC 2-1 LIVERPOOL Premiership
Away 01-03-2011 READING FC 1-0 Everton Premiership

Away 20-12-2008 READING FC 3-1 Birmingham 2nd
Away 24-02-2010 READING FC 3-2 WBA 2nd

Away 24-03-2010 READING FC 2-1 Leicester 4th
Away 23-10-2010 READING FC 4-0 Burnley 7th

Away 28-08-2010 READING FC 2-1 Leicester 10th

I call that seven top sides... and you could add Derby who were 7th when we beat them




Away 18-08-2009 READING FC 0-0 Swansea
Away 10-04-2010 READING FC 0-0 Cardiff
Away 14-09-2010 READING FC 0-0 Millwall
Away 20-11-2010 READING FC 1-1 Watford
Away 28-12-2010 READING FC 1-1 Hull
Away 01-02-2011 READING FC 2-2 Cardiff

[brendywendy]

W
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W(POSF)
W(POF)

[No Hoops]

It's still on Brendy.

[Son of Len]

True, but Everton were in form, and had lots of good, expensive players and we still beat them with a lesser team - and in so doing achieved only our 10th clean sheet of the whole season (that - for me - was the most surprising aspect of that game). In other words, there are far too many variables attached to a footbal match to be able to predict with any certainty, what will happen.

Easy way of proving that; someone should pick say, ANY 10 games from tomorrow, and everybody can check form, positions in the table, sun spots and anything else that floats your boat. The likliehood that ANYONE will correctly predict all 10 results (results mind, not scores) is minimal.

Actually, predicting any outcome with any certainty with any number of variables is exactly what statisticians do.

[Ian Royal]

He said we DIDN'T beat top clubs (without defining what "top clubs" meant.

I showed we did.

We haven't beaten Leeds, we haven't beaten Norwich, we haven't beaten QPR, we haven't beaten Cardiff, we haven't beaten Forest.

Stop being so pedantic Snowball, we've beaten Burnley, Leicester, Donny, and a few good teams in the cup but no we haven't done it in the league.

Honestly the length you'll go to just to win an ebeef with Ian is pathetic

Swansea too btw, so that's all of the top 6 having played 10 of our 12 games against them isn't it? Five points from that lot is pretty piss poor really.

Personally I think it's an overstatement to say we haven't beaten any good teams this season because of the form part of it. Burnley were in pretty good form when we stuck 4 past them iirc. I'm sure if you had enough time on your hands and were sad enough you could find a few teams in good form we'd beaten.

But against the consistently better performing teams in the division we haven't been good enough, which, should we make it into the play offs, doesn't bode well really.

[RoyalX]

In other words, there are far too many variables attached to a football match to be able to predict with any certainty, what will happen.

I have to take issue with this statement. How else do betting companies/professional bettors make their money?

[Ian Royal]

In other words, there are far too many variables attached to a football match to be able to predict with any certainty, what will happen.

I have to take issue with this statement. How else do betting companies/professional bettors make their money?

Knowing what specific types of bets are best value and most likely to succeed?

[weybridgewanderer]

I have to take issue with this statement. How else do betting companies/professional bettors make their money?

Well it aint through football accumulators!!

Lets take horse racing as an example

There is no guarantee the favourite will win a race

But there is a very strong probabililty that A favourite will win at least 1 race at a meeting

They then decide what they want to win from that meeting

So say they decide the want to win £1000

They bet enough on the favourite for the 1st race to win £1000.

If it doesn't win then they bet enough on the favourite of the next race to cover their losses and win £1000

and so on till the favourite wins

Then they look for another meeting where the favourite has not won yet and start the process again

[moo]

In other words, there are far too many variables attached to a football match to be able to predict with any certainty, what will happen.

I have to take issue with this statement. How else do betting companies/professional bettors make their money?

Knowing what specific types of bets are best value and most likely to succeed?

And ensuring if someone bets on every outcome the book is below 100%