BBC Predictor Thingy

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Svlad - your table seems a bit unrealistic to me. You really think Sheff U will only get 3 more points from 9 games?!

As well as Scunny only getting 1 more points from 9 games?

Top end of the table is far too heavily stacked IMO. There will be quite a few funny results to come - we just have to hope we're not on the end of some of them!

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Without doing the predictor, it looks like we need to aim for 76 pts to get into the playoffs. With 54 now that means 22pts from 30 in 10 games. That looks pretty difficult.

74pts might to it, but we'd be relying on other results. That looks pretty achievable

I agree....with the worst placed team being on 60 pts with 9 games to go, I cannot see anything less than 75/76 being enough.

[Gav]

Few hammerings for us against Derby, Preston and Coventry.. 2 Losses to Leeds and Forest.. but make it anyway!

I've got an identical top 9, just in a slightly different order. Reading are also 5th.

QPR
Norwich
---
Cardiff
Leeds
Reading
Swansea
---
Forest
Burnley
Leicester
Millwall
Watford
Portsmouth

Priceless

What am I missing? :-s

[Svlad Cjelli]

Svlad - your table seems a bit unrealistic to me. You really think Sheff U will only get 3 more points from 9 games?!

As well as Scunny only getting 1 more points from 9 games?

Top end of the table is far too heavily stacked IMO. There will be quite a few funny results to come - we just have to hope we're not on the end of some of them!

Yeah, it's all a bit of a lottery with this many games to go, so I suppose I did over-estimate teams at the top and under-estimate teams at the bottom.

I do foresee Scunny plummeting - relegation is their only chance of staying in business.

[Ian Royal]

I had a go at it but I think I tend to go with too many clear results and in favour of the better teams...

QPR - 92
Norwich - 89
Cardiff - 82
Swansea - 82
Forest - 77
Burnley - 76
Leeds - 75
Reading - 70 (funnily enough on the poll a while back I predicted around 68, so not much difference - in with a shout until losing our penultimate game against Coventry, then a whimper of a draw with Derby.)
Leicester - 69
Millwall - 68.
-----
Sheff Utd - 39
Preston - 38
Scunthorpe - 36

[Mike Hunt]

What am I missing? :-s

I've got an identical top 9, just in a slightly different order. Reading are also 5th.

If it were identical, it would not be in a slightly different order...

[Gav]

What am I missing? :-s

I've got an identical top 9, just in a slightly different order. Reading are also 5th.

If it were identical, it would not be in a slightly different order...

Aha, I see. What I meant was that the teams comprising the top nine are (perhaps unsurprisingly) identical, but the order in which they appear is different.

I appreciate the clumsiness of how I phrased it though!

[Snowball]

IMO we have been getting slowly better with Elwood in the side
Zurab back, Hunt and Long flying, extra cover from Tabby. I expect this
last fifteen/ten games to be our highest ppg of the season. We are 2.2 ppg (5 games) at the moment

We have to play

24th Home 3-6-9 23-33
23rd Home 3-4-12 13-31
22nd Away 4-4-11 15-34
19th Away 7-3-9 22-24
18th Home 5-4-9 17-28
15th Away 9-5-4 25-17 (This one worries me!)
13th Home 6-2-10 19-27
10th Home 6-2-11 21-34
6th Away 10-8-1 30-15 (Looks tough, but they are a side on a terrible run)
5th Away 9-6-4 40-31 (Tough, Leeds have won less than half their home games)

Average Position 15.5 That is surely the softest run-in ever?

Barnsley away won't be easy and if we lose there
it's virtually all over IMO (tho' I suppose we could still L1 W9)

I just think a win there and it'll be three on the trot with two home games and us flying.

Pompey have a VG first 11, and had a bit of a run, but I think they will be safe
and going through the motions a bit.

Preston are finding some form but I still think we can beat them

So I fancy us to get to the Forest game either DWWDWW or DWWWWW
and they will probably have dropped a lot of points. Win THERE and woooopeee.

2-1 Barnsley (15th) v Reading
1-0 Reading v Portsmouth (13th)
2-1 Reading v Preston (24th)
0-0 Nott'm Forest (6th*) v Reading * but on a horrible run of form

2-1 Scunthorpe (22nd) v Reading
2-1 Reading v Leicester (10th)
0-0 Leeds (5th) v Reading
3-0 Reading v Sheffield (23rd)
2-1 Coventry (19th) v Reading
4-1 Reading v Derby 18th)

18-6

[TFF]

I don't have the attention span required to a) read one of Snowball's posts properly or b) do 9 or 10 rounds of BBC predictor.

I started it tonight but I had Burnley to beat Coventry, Watford to draw at Ipswich and Preston/Scunny another draw.

sacked it off - wake me up in another four or five games

[Readingfanman]

QPR 50 94
Norwich 12 76
---------------
Swansea 16 75
Cardiff 16 75
Reading 32 74
Burnley 12 73
---------------
Forest 15 72
Leeds 6 71
Millwall 15 69
Watford 14 68
Hull 2 68
Leicester-1 67
Ipswich 1 61
Doncaster-14 60
Bristol -7 59
Pompey -7 59
Barnsley -17 55
Cov -7 53
Derby -9 52
Palace -25 48
----------------
Scunny -33 45
Sheff -30 44
Preston -29 38





If it's as close as this I'll be very shocked. This includes an away defeat at Forest, and an away draw at Leeds!

[Snowball]

W6 D2 L2 in our last 10 and we are on 74 points. VERY do-able

HOME

Preston, 24th
Sheffield, 23rd
Derby 18th
Portsmouth, 13th
Leicester 10th

AWAY
Scunthorpe 22nd
Coventry 18th
Barnsley 15th
Forest 6th but in poor form
Leeds 5th currently averaging 1.5 ppg and have won less than half their home games

If we can win 5/5 at home, and win at Barnsley and/or Scunny and/or Coventry, the results at Forest and Leeds probably won't matter (but a draw or win at either would be fantastic).


I'm amazed to see that the Paddy Power are only giving 7-1 against RFC being PROMOTED

[Svlad Cjelli]

Alternatively, win everything at home and draw everything away. That is eminently do-able also considering the teams we've got.

I'm amazed to see that the Paddy Power are only giving 7-1 against RFC being PROMOTED

The markets moved downwards very quickly just after the Man City game. I can just imagine all the punters who know nothing about Championship football watching us keep City at bay on ESPN, look up our odds for promotion, think we're massively good value and pile money on.

[Readingfanman]

I wouldn't be shocked to see us on 74 points as such, just to see the top 8 as close as that.

[Snowball]

Alternatively, win everything at home and draw everything away. That is eminently do-able also considering the teams we've got.

YUP

It's always possible to come a cropper against any club, top or 24th but home games against 18th-23rd-24th we ought to expect a very good win. 9 Points and maybe an extra 8/9/10 on GD. Let's face it, if we are a top-six side we should beat these.

HOME

Preston, 24th
Sheffield, 23rd
Derby 18th
Portsmouth, 13th
Leicester 10th

Neither Leicester or Pompey will be easy

Pompey have won at Swansea, Hull, Millwall, Norwich, Ipswich, Donny and drawn at Leeds. They've W3 L3 of their last six away

A 0-2 Coventry
A 0-1 Preston
A 1-4 Palace
A 0-1 Sheffield Utd
A 2-2 Boro
A 1-0 Millwall
A 2-1 Hull
A 0-2 Derby
A 0-1 Barnsley
A 2-1 Swansea
A 2-0 Norwich
A 3-3 Leeds
A 0-3 Watford
A 1-2 Forest
A 0-2 QPR
A 2-0 Doncaster
A 2-0 Ipswich
A 1-2 Bristol

[Terminal Boardom]

LOL and I mean a MASSIVE LOL at websters predicting their favourite team will make the play offs

[Snowball]

LOL and I mean a MASSIVE LOL at websters predicting their favourite team will make the play offs

They also predict 3 other teams will make the Play-Offs and that two will make the auto places.

Is it THAT exceptional?

At this stage of the season, more-or-less just the top 12 have any chance and that, without anything else considered, would be 50/50 if we chose randomly.

But the top 6-7-8-9 have better chances and Reading have a game in hand, at home versus the bottom club, and will be 3-1 on probably to win it.

If they played that tonight (and won) they'd be SEVENTH, just 3 points off the play-offs with 9 games to go.

Forest are dropping points right left and centre, so are Cardiff. Leeds are 1.5 ppg for the last 6, Swansea have won a single point in their last 9 points

RFC have a very easy run-in compared to most of the other clubs.

Forget "optimism" or "my club" They SHOULD BE short-odds to make the play-offs.


Yes it can all go pear-shaped at Barnsley, but many of the contenders WILL drop points this weekend, guaranteed.

Swansea, Forest, Hull, Norwich, Millwall and Cardiff could all drop points this weekend.

More importantly, 3, 4, 5 or six WILL drop points.

Swansea v Nott'm Forest
Hull v Norwich
Millwall v Cardiff

Sheff Utd v Leeds
Barnsley v Reading
Bristol City v Burnley
Doncaster v QPR
Leicester v Portsmouth
Middlesbrough v Watford

[Terminal Boardom]

At least we won't get relegated.

[brendywendy]

BurnLOLy

[PistolPete]

If anyone is good with Betfair, this will make sense to you...



This is how our season has panned out with the percentage chance of PROMOTION according to betfair punters. Last matched price was 8.0

This means that right now, we have a 12.5% chance of promotion

HOWEVER

For a top 6 finish, our chart looks like this:



This means that betfair punters feel we have a 25% chance of making the play offs. If you think our chances are better than that, get involved at 4.0

Makes interesting reading to see how objective punters think we'll do. How many have done their research remains to be seen, but Betfair is THE barometer IMO

[Snowball]

While we have to continue to play well and get 18-19-20-21-22 from our ten games (72-76 points, say)

Note that we play 7 out of 8 of the current worst-form teams,
plus Leicester in 13th, Leeds in 10th. Only Pompey are on form

It's also a case of how are the others going to fare and a few look in trouble.

Look where Cardiff and Forest are in the form table

FORM TABLE (<<<< indicates teams we have to play)

01 6 4-1-1 09-04 +05 13 2.17 QPR
02 6 4-1-1 07-02 +05 13 2.17 Portsmouth <<<<<<<<
03 6 3-3-0 15-09 +06 12 2.00 Reading
05 6 3-3-0 12-07 +05 12 2.00 Norwich City
06 6 3-2-1 10-05 +05 11 1.83 Watford
07 6 3-2-1 07-07 +00 11 1.83 Burnley
08 6 3-1-2 09-04 +05 10 1.67 Swansea City
09 6 3-1-2 04-04 +00 10 1.67 Hull City
10 6 2-3 -1 12-11 +01 09 1.50 Leeds United <<<<<<<<
12 6 2-1-3 08-06 +02 07 1.17 Millwall
13 6 2-1-3 08-08 +00 07 1.17 Leicester City <<<<<<<<
14 6 2-1-3 07-07 +00 07 1.17 Cardiff City
17 6 2-1-3 05-07 -02 07 1.17 Derby County <<<<<<<<
18 6 1-3-2 09-08 +01 06 1.00 Preston North End <<<<<<<<
19 6 1-3-2 07-09 -02 06 1.00 Barnsley <<<<<<<<
20 6 0-4-2 04-06 -02 04 0.67 Forest <<<<<<<<
22 6 0-3 -3 05-10 -05 03 0.50 Coventry City <<<<<<<<
23 6 1-0-5 04-10 -06 03 0.50 Sheffield United <<<<<<<<
24 6 1-0-5 02-12 -10 03 0.50 Scunthorpe United <<<<<<<<