play-offs?

[Ian Royal]

And it's now official. Neither Palace nor Wednesday can catch us, so we are safe from relegation with 5 games left.

Huzzah. And still a tiny shot at the play offs. with Swansea losing.

[Archie's penalty]

Brilliant. And it's all set for Tuesday's game now. If we win that it really gets exciting.

[Arch]

I'm off the playoff bandwagon as of today. Just seems too long of a shot, but I'm glad as the prospect slips away it's not because we're playing poorly as has happened in the past. Looking forward to the remaining games - especially Tuesday - even if I don't think we're going up.

[zummerset]

If we went up it would be a disaster prbly - but am happy if we make the play offs and pretty pleased to be in the top ten otherwise. If only JM had listened to the Rodgers is an eejit clique a bit sooner.

[Dirk Gently]

The outside chance is just that little bit more outside now - relaistically, it;s just really Swansea to be looking at.

If they don't lose two of their matches we really need to win all five of ours to have a practical chance of over-taking them.

[Ian Royal]

The outside chance is just that little bit more outside now - relaistically, it;s just really Swansea to be looking at.

If they don't lose two of their matches we really need to win all five of ours to have a practical chance of over-taking them.

So the MET may well be rooting for us in the hope they don't have to worry about a Cardiff - Swansea final.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

^^^ what zummerz said, more or less, and I've said it here before (but was spared a slating by the keyboard hardmen who get their noots in a knot anytime someone around here expresses any sentiment that falls short of "Champions League group stage --here we come!" ::rolleyes::).

Loath to be timid tony about it, but look at Burnley --who really needs a season of hanging on for dear life, maybe nicking the odd point from one of he big boys here and there, and at all of it at double the cost during a time at which we're really not ready to make a long stay of it? Soon though, I trust --or so I do based on what I know and what I have reason to believe, anyway.

I'm off the playoff bandwagon as of today. Just seems too long of a shot, but I'm glad as the prospect slips away it's not because we're playing poorly as has happened in the past. Looking forward to the remaining games - especially Tuesday - even if I don't think we're going up.

The margin for error is now virtually nil --and I hasten to note that I'm absolutely delighted that our guys went into the Welsh capital, played a side that's higher up in the table but has clinched nothing yet, and came out with a point without conceding in the transaction; I'd've ripped that right outta your hand all week long if you'd had it in writing.

Here's how it looks --each side named is above us in the table (and we cannot catch Newcastle, Albion or Forest); the number shown for each is the amount of points won by that side, in combination with points lost by us, that would assure that side of a final placement above ours (our "tragic number," if you will, relative to each), and it assumes that we claim maximum (15) points from our remaining matches; also shown are each side's remaining opponents:

4) Cardiff: 2 QPR(a) Wednesday(h) Derby(a)
5) Leicester: 5 Watford(h) Preston(a) Boro(h)
6) Swansea: 7 Barnsley(h) SheffU(a) Donny(h)
------------------------
7) Blackpool: 9 Forest(h) Posh(a) BristolC(h)
8) Middlesbrough: 11 WBA(a) Coventry(h) Leicester(a)
9) Bristol City: 13 Scunny(a) Derby(h) Blackpool(a)
10) Sheff Utd: 14 Wendesday(a) Swansea(h) Ipswich(a)

So it's all pegged for now to Swansea currently in 6th. If from their final three games they win two and draw one, and assuming that Cardiff and Leicester find a way to add 2 and 5 points, respectively, then our playoff chase falls short.

Likewise, if we lose once and draw twice over our remaining five (equals 7 points dropped), then you can stick a fork in it --and of course it works in combinations of points won by others plus points dropped by us (e.g., if we were to lose but once, then Swans would edge us out with a win and a draw from their final three, plus multiple other workable combinados that you could dope out for yourself).

I won't say right now that I'd eat my hat, but I am looking thru my cabinet to see what varieties of hot sauces I've got on hand just in case I'm up for making any bold declarations of the kind between now and this time next week.

And so there you've got it for now [mode=sappy]--no joke, I've never considered myself more fortunate than I do right now that random chance has made me a fan of any particular ballclub, and I've seen me some good in my time.

I really believed, after the win at Anfield, that there was no way this squad was going down --sh*t, the effort put forth in the home draw was persuasive in and of itself, and this was before the league defeats to Forest and Blades (sammitch'd around a Cup win over Burnley) that saw us sat second bottom on 23 points after 26 league matches played.

Well done our boys --humbled to be so proud.[/mode]

[brendywendy]

greed

i wouldnt say that we will win all 5
but i would say its likely that swansea may lose two


just nice to still have a bit of something to play for.
settle for 7th and champions next year

[Dirk Gently]

My prediction is that we go into the last game with a mathematical possibility of just making it if a specific set of results happens, with all the usual overblown media hyperbole - then we do our part of that but results elsewhere mean we go home disappointed again.

[Ian Royal]

My prediction is that we go into the last game with a mathematical possibility of just making it if a specific set of results happens, with all the usual overblown media hyperbole - then we do our part of that but results elsewhere mean we go home disappointed again.

I agree mostly, but we won't quite score enough goals, other results going against us anyway though.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Y'know what? (and y'all'll just have to take me @ my word when I say that I'd meant to post this a week and a half or two ago but got sidetracked)

I wouldn't mind one bit an outcome that saw everybody getting to enjoy that sun-kissed day out @ Wemberz after all, and I'd be totally cool with it if everything culmin8'd in an absolute beatdown suffered @ the hands of a patently superior side better equipped than we to go up and get unceremoniously stuffed right back down here (like, you know, Nottingham Forest)

Beer, brass bands, backslaps, cash from three extra games, global TeeVee exposure and all-round funfunfun --yeah, that'd tide me over quite nicely 'til August

[Arch]

My prediction is that we go into the last game with a mathematical possibility of just making it if a specific set of results happens, with all the usual overblown media hyperbole - then we do our part of that but results elsewhere mean we go home disappointed again.

I agree mostly, but we won't quite score enough goals, other results going against us anyway though.

If the WDL numbers work out for us to catch Swansea, the GD will take care of itself.

[Dirk Gently]

My prediction is that we go into the last game with a mathematical possibility of just making it if a specific set of results happens, with all the usual overblown media hyperbole - then we do our part of that but results elsewhere mean we go home disappointed again.

I agree mostly, but we won't quite score enough goals, other results going against us anyway though.

If the WDL numbers work out for us to catch Swansea, the GD will take care of itself.

Correct - it's virtually impossible for us to win 5 and Swansea to lose 2 without us making up a GD of 3 difference.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Really can't believe people are still talking about play-offs. We need to win 3 from 5 just to catch what Swansea have now!! Surely they or Blackpool will get at least another 3 pts from a possible 9 meaning we need to win 4 from 5 minimum if not 5 from 5.

We've dropped points in 3 of the last 4 league games & have Newcastle next.

I think people need to get a grip on reality!

[brendywendy]

chill out!

i dont think anyones saying it WILL happen, just that its possible, and in this league you cant really rule out any set of results

[Snowball]

As the man has said WIN NEXT GAME

Had we already won those two in hand and were
two points back on Swansea with a virtually identical GD
we most certainly would be saying we are in with a chance

Those two games are Newcastle and Scunthorpe


Should we win against Newcastle, four more wins after that is a real possibility
Scunthorpe-Watford-Preston-Peterboro

Agree it's all highly unlikely, but a win v Newcastle would completely change the odds


The bubble may well burst on Tuesday with a 1-2 defeat or a 2-2 draw, but IF we win we'll have a real chance of catching Swansea who are definitely wobbling

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Best case scenario for Reading IMO is 68 pts (4 wins from 5). We categorically will not win all 5.

This means Swansea can only take 3pts from a possible 9 & we potentially go above them on GD if we win the 4 games.

It also means that Boro can only win 6 pts from 9 & Blackpool can only get 4 pts from 9 as we can't overturn the massive GD difference. Blackpool have Posh & Bristol City to play. They could easily win those 2 games.

Personally I think Blackpool will push Swansea out & we will finish 8th/9th. Great effort though. Top 8 would be truly amazing.

[Wimb]

I just think it's win all or bust now. I don't think we'll quite do it but lets keep building for next year

[Sun Tzu]

I just think it's win all or bust now. I don't think we'll quite do it but lets keep building for next year

It's a great situation to be in. Really no pressure, we've achieved way more than any of us expected we would when McD took over. If after each game we're still in the hunt then the credit increases. If at any point we can no longer make it then the remaining games become preparation for next year. Maybe see a couple of players getting run outs (Jake Taylor / Bell-Baggie perhaps)

[SLAMMED]

Baggies on load at Rotherham I think.