No Fixed Abode stealthpapes No Fixed Abode But there can't be excessive force if there was no contact.

with excessive force
or endangers the safety of an opponent
Does not need to have contact.
To be fair, whenever a ref does interpret it correctly, it all kicks off in punditland.
Makes no sense. Players endanger the safety of players all the time, in every challenge that is made. So you can only send someone off if there is contact imo.
I do think you're conflating a number of things here. Your own opinion, a misreading of the laws on your part, a conflation of what gives rise to a freekick (and hence a penalty in the chelsea example posted) and a sending off, and the exact wording of the law.
The full wording for 'serious foul play' has been posted.
"Any player who lunges at an opponent in challenging for the ball from the
front, from the side or from behind using one or both legs, with excessive force
or endangers the safety of an opponent is guilty of serious foul play."
There clearly does not need to be contact.
In terms of direct freekicks, the three things a referee has to judge is whether the challenge was careless, reckless or uses excessive force. Clearly, a foul can be all three without there being contact. In the case of the goalkeeper incident you posted, I'd suggest there'd be a case for a foul there, depending on the exact incident. I really don't care.
It is also clear that there is a pretty large gray area in all of this, and that's down to the referee's interpretation of the game going on ahead of them.
Ian is utterly correct in his recollection* of the laws of the game.
You are factually incorrect in saying that there needs to be contact, although you're quite right in noting that most referees avoid it, except for some of the more ludicrous attempted 'tackles' out there. A better reading of the laws on your part might result in less time trying to chase phantom cards and penalties, but I can't see you dropping that, tbh.
The lad - double d - who posted about it making the game soft? You might very well think that ...