The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

I see no reason why we should not continue to get 2 points a game - as we have been averaging that for 25 games now.

If so that is 84 points - which is more often than not sufficient for automatic promotion.

Past results (themselves) are no indication of future results.








But they are a very strong indicator of a team/squad's real worth, and, since that 2 ppg
includes a fairly ordinary first 6, and another month with WDDDD, and since we have
been MUCH higher than 2ppg in the last 15 games, then 2ppg is definitely on.

[themadstad]

I can see this point the trouble is can we sustain it. We always seem to miss out/tail off. It will require 2 points per game for the final 15 to creap in to 2nd spot. Based on our last 25 you'd imagine we get 30 points. Yet we have 6 home games and 9 away games. Tough away games, even the home games are hard. Teams fighting for promotion or to avoid the drop.

We now have talk of McDermott to Wolves. Our run in looks the hardest too. We could well find we come close and sit there game 46 saying if only.

[Franchise FC]

I can see this point the trouble is can we sustain it. We always seem to miss out/tail off. It will require 2 points per game for the final 15 to creap in to 2nd spot. Based on our last 25 you'd imagine we get 30 points. Yet we have 6 home games and 9 away games. Tough away games, even the home games are hard. Teams fighting for promotion or to avoid the drop.

We now have talk of McDermott to Wolves. Our run in looks the hardest too. We could well find we come close and sit there game 46 saying if only.

Has 1teaminberks been reincarnated ?

[Snowball]

I can see this point the trouble is can we sustain it. We always seem to miss out/tail off. It will require 2 points per game for the final 15 to creap in to 2nd spot. Based on our last 25 you'd imagine we get 30 points. Yet we have 6 home games and 9 away games. Tough away games, even the home games are hard. Teams fighting for promotion or to avoid the drop.

We now have talk of McDermott to Wolves. Our run in looks the hardest too. We could well find we come close and sit there game 46 saying if only.

2 ppg (84 points will win this league this year IMO)

Let's think in 3 x 5 games

10 Points need from:

A Middlesbrough
A Millwall
H Portsmouth
H Leicester
A Doncaster

Great chance for four wins, and maybe something at Boro

We really need to try for 13 or 15 Points from those
but until the bubble burst (if it ever does) 10 is brilliant

IMO (after working to the end) I've gone back here to say these 5 games (above)
are our best chance. We could win all 5. Unfortunately we probably need to!



We may be ahead of schedule, but if we "only" got 10 from the above, then

Ten Points from:

A Barnsley FLC
A Peterborough FLC
H Blackpool FLC
A West Ham Utd FLC
H Leeds United FLC

Will be very hard to win at Barnsley or Peterboro (but not impossible at either. Presume 2 draws)
Meaning we need to win the two home games (8) and avoid defeat at West Ham (9)


Presuming we've managed 19-20 points then:

Ten Points from:

A Brighton
A Southampton
H Nottm Forest
H Crystal Palace
A Birmingham

Two decent chances of home wins (look essential!) and we need WDL from the three tough ones away)

[themadstad]

I can see this point the trouble is can we sustain it. We always seem to miss out/tail off. It will require 2 points per game for the final 15 to creap in to 2nd spot. Based on our last 25 you'd imagine we get 30 points. Yet we have 6 home games and 9 away games. Tough away games, even the home games are hard. Teams fighting for promotion or to avoid the drop.

We now have talk of McDermott to Wolves. Our run in looks the hardest too. We could well find we come close and sit there game 46 saying if only.

2 ppg (84 points will win this league this year IMO)

Let's think in 3 x 5 games

10 Points need from:

A Middlesbrough
A Millwall
H Portsmouth
H Leicester
A Doncaster

Great chance for four wins, and maybe something at Boro

We really need to try for 13 or 15 Points from those
but until the bubble burst (if it ever does) 10 is brilliant

IMO (after working to the end) I've gone back here to say these 5 games (above)
are our best chance. We could win all 5. Unfortunately we probably need to!



We may be ahead of schedule, but if we "only" got 10 from the above, then

Ten Points from:

A Barnsley FLC
A Peterborough FLC
H Blackpool FLC
A West Ham Utd FLC
H Leeds United FLC

Will be very hard to win at Barnsley or Peterboro (but not impossible at either. Presume 2 draws)
Meaning we need to win the two home games (8) and avoid defeat at West Ham (9)


Presuming we've managed 19-20 points then:

Ten Points from:

A Brighton
A Southampton
H Nottm Forest
H Crystal Palace
A Birmingham

Two decent chances of home wins (look essential!) and we need WDL from the three tough ones away)

84 to win the league? No, how many times has that happened? 84 would do for 2nd though or at least should be.

[Snowball]

The league was won in 2007-08 with 81 POINTS

83 was good enough for second the following year

84 was good enough for second last year

Saints (top) have 14 games to go. If they gain 25 points from 14 games = 1.78 ppg, very decent, they will finish on 84 points

[themadstad]

So 84 to win the league is rare but not for 2nd. That's how I see it, I don't see it any different this season though.

Not that we'll finish 2nd mind.

[Snowball]

After West Ham win at Blackpool etc 21 FEB


Form Since Sept 17th

1 P25 15-5-5 . . 13 Clean Sheets . . 34-19 GD +15 50 Points 2.00 ppg - Reading
2 P25 14-5-6 . . 10 Clean Sheets . . 36-25 GD +11 47 Points 1.88 ppg - West Ham United
3 P26 13-8-5 . . 10 Clean Sheets . . 42-21 GD +21 47 Points 1.81 ppg - Birmingham City
4 P24 12-5-7 . . 11 Clean Sheets . . 27-19 GD +08 41 Points 1.71 ppg - Hull City
5 P26 12-8-6 . . 09 Clean Sheets . . 43-24 GD +19 44 Points 1.69 ppg - Southampton
6 P26 11-9-6 . . 08 Clean Sheets . . 41-33 GD +08 42 Points 1.62 ppg - Cardiff City
7 P26 11-8-7 . . 06 Clean Sheets . . 45-37 GD +08 41 Points 1.58 ppg - Blackpool
8 P26 12-5-9 . . 06 Clean Sheets . . 41-37 GD +04 41 Points 1.58 ppg - Leeds United
9 P25 10-9-6 . . 10 Clean Sheets . . 26-27 GD -01 39 Points 1.56 ppg - Middlesbrough

[Snowball]

West Ham, Birmingham, Boro winning away didn't feel good
while we were also worrying about McD and Wolves but this week
wasn't so terrible after all, was it?

Blackpool lost and Hull-Brighton drew...

So just over their last two games our rivals have dropped these points

4 Hull
4 Brighton
3 Blackpool
3 Cardiff
3 Burnley
2 Birmingham
2 West Ham
2 Southampton


and just 3 games ago Cardiff lost again, wobble-wobble, and Burnley, and Blackpool drew


Must admit this weekend worries me, though

We just need to keep a steady near 2 ppg to have a great chance

[Snowball]

01 31 19 60 West Ham
02 32 26 59 Southampton
03 31 22 54 Birmingham
04 31 12 54 Reading
05 32 11 53 Cardiff
06 31 06 53 Middlesbrough
============================
07 32 11 52 Blackpool
08 31 06 51 Hull
09 32 03 50 Brighton
10 32 04 48 Leeds United
11 32 07 47 Burnley
12 31 03 43 Crystal Palace

JUST starting to string-out a bit, and we have a game in hand on a few

A few weeks ago I thought Cardiff were uncatchable. Now we are above them with a game in hand.




Only one six-pointer this weekend (but maybe Palace can help us at West Ham)
but four big games the following Tuesday/Saturday

Middlesboro V Reading (Just don't get beat, RFC)
Blackpool V Hull (2-2 draw, please)
Leeds United V Southampton (Home please, God)
Cardiff V West Ham (And another home would be nice, although a draw would be good too)
Hull V Leeds United (Draw please, Big G)

[Snowball]

HOME Games v Contenders

It'll be interesting to see who of the top ten does best at home.

Blackpool dropped a big one and will have to work extra hard now.
Maybe they will do us the monster favour of beating Saints

Blackpool 3 Points Dropped

Blackpool 1-4 West Ham Blackpool drop 3 Points
Blackpool V Hull
Blackpool V Leicester
Blackpool V Burnley
Blackpool V Leeds United
Blackpool V Brighton
Blackpool V Southampton

West Ham

West Ham V Middlesbrough
West Ham V Birmingham
West Ham V Hull
West Ham V Reading
West Ham V Brighton

Brighton

Brighton V Cardiff
Brighton V Middlesbrough
Brighton V Birmingham
Brighton V Reading

Cardiff

Cardiff V West Ham
Cardiff V Hull
Cardiff V Burnley
Cardiff V Leeds United

Middlesbro

Middlesbrough V Reading
Middlesbrough V Southampton
Middlesbrough V Leeds United
Middlesbrough V Cardiff


Birmingham

Birmingham V Cardiff
Birmingham V Middlesbrough
Birmingham V Reading

Burnley

Burnley V Birmingham
Burnley V West Ham
Burnley V Brighton

Hull 2 Points Dropped

Hull 0-0 Brighton Hull and Brighton drop two points each
Hull V Leeds United
Hull V Southampton
Hull V Middlesbrough


Leeds

Leeds United V Southampton
Leeds United V Leicester
Leeds United V West Ham

Reading

Reading 1-0 Burnley Burnley drop three points away
Reading V Blackpool
Reading V Leeds United


Leicester
Leicester V Burnley
Leicester V West Ham


Southampton
Southampton V Reading

[JC]

Looking at your stats for home matches don't the teams with less home games against contenders find themseleves at a disadvantage as thgey do not have the 6 pointers?
In particular Southampton only have us so does that mean they miss opportunities to make up ground. They do, however, have 4 away games.
I suppose the alternative view is that they have easy home games

[Snowball]

Looking at your stats for home matches don't the teams with less home games against contenders find themseleves at a disadvantage as thgey do not have the 6 pointers?
In particular Southampton only have us so does that mean they miss opportunities to make up ground. They do, however, have 4 away games.
I suppose the alternative view is that they have easy home games

There's an away games post too, but yes.

Blackpool have a lot of chances to hurt "top-ten" sides are their place
but not current top four teams.

West Ham had 5 home, 5 away (4 now) so basically can wrap it up
by beating sides like Reading.

Sides like us may have a lot of tough fixtures but IF we get good results in them
we do damage to our rivals.


I do think, though that we need to try and get 10-15 points from the next 5 games to
give us a bit of a lead on the required 2 ppg before the REALLY tough matches come


Boro feels VERY important for some reason

['lista]

Looking at your stats for home matches don't the teams with less home games against contenders find themseleves at a disadvantage as thgey do not have the 6 pointers?
In particular Southampton only have us so does that mean they miss opportunities to make up ground. They do, however, have 4 away games.
I suppose the alternative view is that they have easy home games

There's an away games post too, but yes.

Blackpool have a lot of chances to hurt "top-ten" sides are their place
but not current top four teams.

West Ham had 5 home, 5 away (4 now) so basically can wrap it up
by beating sides like Reading.

Sides like us may have a lot of tough fixtures but IF we get good results in them
we do damage to our rivals.


I do think, though that we need to try and get 10-15 points from the next 5 games to
give us a bit of a lead on the required 2 ppg before the REALLY tough matches come


Boro feels VERY important for some reason

And this years Academy Award nominations in the category STATIN' THE BLEEDIN' OBVIOUS are as follows....

[Z175]

Last time.Boro away was crucial was when we hadn't won away all season. Harper.scored the winner at the end, a crucial away win that arrested our slip down the table.

We still got relegated tho!

[Snowball]

Last time.Boro away was crucial was when we hadn't won away all season. Harper.scored the winner at the end, a crucial away win that arrested our slip down the table.

We still got relegated tho!

In one sense it shouldn't matter if we got beat at Boro...

If we then won our next four games it'd be WWWW L WWWW

That would 12 points from the 5, 24 from the last 10, 62 from 30 on "the run"

and we'd be on 66 from 36 for the whole season, 1.833 ppg, an 84 points season


But I can't help feeling after the McDermott-Wolves saga, this has become a massive game.

WIN it and we are starting to look really, really good
(but frankly, West Ham, Birmingham and Saints do too)
and we could be on for 9 wins on the trot.


Lose and I could see a few more dropped points and then the talk is only about hanging on for 5th/6th

[rfc2001]

Playing against the top teams away may be little advantage for us. No team breaks quicker than us no team has a better defence. The better teams will have to come out and attack.

COUNTER ATTACK FOOTBALL

[Wycombe Royal]

no team has a better defence.

I thought Hull had conceded less.

[1871 Royal]

no team has a better defence.

I thought Hull had conceded less.

They have, we have the 2nd best defense

[Ian Royal]

no team has a better defence.

I thought Hull had conceded fewer.