BFTG Bolton

[Ian Royal]

He's done some great work since but this is an excellent FACT from snowers

The move from Premiership to Championship for a player almost always means more goals (more than x 2)

I'd love to see* some stats to back this up

Well I can think of three players just for us who couldn't manage it

Les Ferdinand 2003/04 PL - 12(13), 2004/05 PL & Chump 1*
ALF 2012/13 PL - 12, 2013/14 Chump 15
HRK - 2012/13 PL - 7, 2013/14 Chump - 4

A quick glance at the last few PL top scorers charts also chucks out
Kevin Davies - 2011/12 - 6, 2012/13 - 6
Gary Hooper 2013/14 PL - 8, 2014/15 Chump - 9

tee hee.






*Half a season in the PL half in the Chump - 1 goal in each League Cup, PL and Chump.

[Maguire]

Hal Robson-Kanu:

7 in the PL
4 in the Championship

No, you might think I've missed a '1' off the front there (based on players almost always scoring more than 2x as many when they get relegated) but it really was only 4.

[Angry Shed Sex]

He's done some great work since but this is an excellent FACT from snowers

The move from Premiership to Championship for a player almost always means more goals (more than x 2)

I'd love to see* some stats to back this up

Just ramped out a few going the other way

INGS, Burnley

09 goals in 025 @ 237 mins/goal 2014-15 Premiership
21 goals in 040 @ 168 mins/goal 2013-14 Championship

NUGENT, Leicester

03 Goals in 024 @ 471 mins/goal 2014-15 Premiership
20 Goals in 046 @ 179 mins/goal 2013-14C hampionship

LONG, Reading, WBA

08 goals in 032 @ 273 mins/goal 2011-12 Premiership
01 goals in 001 @ 090 mins/goal 2011-12Championship180

21 goals in 040 @ 180 mins/goal 2010-11 Championship

DOYLE

37 goals in 164 @ 350 mins/goal All Seasons Premiership
48 goals in 140 @ 237 mins/goal All Seasons Championship

KITSON

15 goals in 081 @ 336 mins/goal All Seasons Premiership
54 goals in 155 @ 219 mins/goal All Seasons Championship


If you sum/average these few players you get

333.4 mins/goal Premiership
178.8 mins/goal Championship

Multiply that by the maximum possible minutes

3420 Minutes Premiership
4140 Minutes Championship

Would result in

10 Goals Premiership
23 Goals Championship

What relevance are these statistics to back up your argument?

Bloody hell - I'm really confused now.

[Angry Shed Sex]

Also some of those goals per game are not correct:


09 goals in 025 @ 237 mins/goal 2014-15 Premiership 250 minutes per goal
21 goals in 040 @ 168 mins/goal 2013-14 Championship 171 minutes per goal

I can't be arsed going through the others.

[Angry Shed Sex]

If I've done a sum wrong I apologise.

I worked it out as number of game * 90 minutes per match / number of goals.

[Snowball]

Unfortunately you said:

The move from Premiership to Championship for a player almost always means more goals (more than x 2)

Which is the complete opposite of what you've just produced.

I did the stats a few years ago and it worked both ways.

That is the vast majority of players moving up scored less than half the goals
and some (but not all) players moving down got more goals


However, the problem with players dropping a league is often that they are
over-the-hill, worn-out, have had lots of injuries, or are just looking for a pay-day

so that stat seems to fluctuate.

Not looked, but the stat that would be interesting would be where players 22-28 are relegated,
stay with their club in the lower division. Presuming they are still "full-on" and that the difference
(the relative ease with which goals can be scored in the Championship + more games) would be clear.

[Snowball]

The stats aren't complicated.

Players scoring well in the Championship usually score less than half
if they go up to the Premiership.

e.g. Long 21 dropping to 8/9

Players (still fit, still young enough) scoring X goals in the Premiership
usually score more than twice as many if they drop a league.

eg Doyle (see next post)

[Snowball]

if you look at Kevin Doyle he shows the stats, moving both ways,
even when you factor in one quite-brilliant Prem Season 06-07 for us



Kevin Doyle,

2005-06 18 Goals in 45 Appearances = 3,649 Minutes Champ RFC
2006-07 13 Goals in 32 Appearances = 2,474 Minutes Prem RFC
2007-08 06 Goals in 36 Appearances = 3,007 Minutes Prem RFC
2008-09 18 Goals in 41 Appearances = 3,440 Minutes Champ RFC

2009-10 09 Goals in 34 Appearances = 2,886 Minutes Prem
2010-11 05 Goals in 26 Appearances = 2,185 Minutes Prem
2011-12 04 Goals in 33 Appearances = 2,349 Minutes Prem
2012-13 10 Goals in 42 Appearances = 3,534 Minutes Champ

if you multiply these out to the max-possible minutes
(3,420 v 4,140) you get:

20 Champ
18 Prem (x .90)
07 Prem (x.35) (x .67 average of two season)
22 Champ (x 1.76 when coming back down)
11 Prem (x .50 going up)
08 Prem (x .36)
06 Prem (.27) (x .38 average over 3 seasons)
12 Champ (1.67 x average for previous 3 Prem seasons)



Or put it another way, Doyle for Reading got 25 goals in two seasons, dropped a league and got 22 goals in a single season.



Looking at 8 consecutive years Doyle scored at a rate worth

(1 Season Total) 20 Champ
(2 Season Total) 25 Prem
(1 Season Total) 22 Champ
(3 Season Total) 25 Prem
(1 Season Total)12 Champ

56 Goals in 3 Seasons 18.67 per season Championship
44 Goals in 2 Seasons 22.00 per season Championship (without the Wolves debacle)
50 Goals in 5 Seasons 10.00 per season Premiership


So in Doyle’s case the ratio was 1.87 if you include his relatively poor season
when with Wolves who were dropping into League 1. Prior to that the ratio was 2.2

[Snowball]

Hal Robson-Kanu:

7 in the PL
4 in the Championship

No, you might think I've missed a '1' off the front there (based on players almost always scoring more than 2x as many when they get relegated) but it really was only 4.

HRK has been a disaster, true, at a club in a mess.

Choosing 1 or 2 counter-examples means very little.

What matters is the averages and the average comes out around the 2.2 mark


And when clowns like Ian Royal dig out players way-past-their-best to make a point
he just shows what a complete saddo he is.

[Snowball]

If I've done a sum wrong I apologise.

I worked it out as number of game * 90 minutes per match / number of goals.

I took APPEARANCES but copied the minutes directly from trsnfrmkt


i also tried looking at max possible minutes times goals/minute played to even things up

[Ian Royal]

Christ he's off snowspasing again.

[Snowball]

Christ he's off snowspasing again.

the girl has spoken