The Battle To Avoid Relegation Thread

[Alexander Litvinenko]

There's no way this side is going to win another 6-8 matches. Something around 20-26 points is a realistic amount to finish on.

Quoted for posterity.

You may well be right, but in the world I live in it's impossible to make such a prediction with quite so much certainty where there are still so many variables.

[Stuka]

I guess that's why football is a fun hobby.

[Nomad_Royal]

take the RTG's off..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... elsea.html

Nope not going to take much notice of that considering they cant even get the simple things right

Reading (19th)
The Premier League new boys’ gung-ho approach has made for some entertaining encounters but it is backs-to-the-wall defending seen in the recent triumph over Spurs which will give Reading any hope of survival. Although they are only five points away from safety they have picked up just two against their rivals – a return to the Championship is on the cards.

[RFCSPACE]

take the RTG's off..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... elsea.html

Nope not going to take much notice of that considering they cant even get the simple things right

Reading (19th)
The Premier League new boys’ gung-ho approach has made for some entertaining encounters but it is backs-to-the-wall defending seen in the recent triumph over Spurs which will give Reading any hope of survival. Although they are only five points away from safety they have picked up just two against their rivals – a return to the Championship is on the cards.

Points against relegation rivals: 2

Says it all really.

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

6 wins and 5 draws=36pts........................it's those who think this is impossible who are delusional.

We only have 17 games left.

We still have to play Chelsea (h), Liverpool (h), Man City (h), and away games at Man Utd, Everton, Arsenal (plus five other away games).

Do you really think we can lose only six more games all season?

[Alexander Litvinenko]

Not likely, but always possible.

[westongeezer]

We are all but relagated now, to avoid is a not even plausable now imo, not realy bothered either, i prefered Championship football over this corporate overpiced diving shte and then seeing all the plastic supporters from Man u and alike that never go to a game slagging us off...

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

There's no way this side is going to win another 6-8 matches. Something around 20-26 points is a realistic amount to finish on.

Quoted for posterity.

You may well be right, but in the world I live in it's impossible to make such a prediction with quite so much certainty where there are still so many variables.

Beyond some new signings taking us to a new level, it's going to take something quite special to turn a team getting 13 points from 21 into one that takes 23 from 17. We are not a team anyone would look at and say we are underperforming badly, nor lacking in effort.

That really only leaves a tactical change, and while we may have got a bit tighter at the back since going 4-5-1 we've also stopped scoring. We've scored twice since adopting our improved formation, and one of those was a complete gift. We also relied on both Swansea and West Ham missing "my granny could have scored that" absolute sitters to get points in those games.

No, you can't say it's impossible. Funny things do happen. Unfortunately our form is just as likely to get much worse as it is to scale the heights needed to stay up. I'd say we are more likely to finish with under 20 points than we are to get 36.

[BR2]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

Reading V West Brom WINNABLE -16 points
Newcastle V Reading Draw? - 17 points
Reading V Chelsea
Reading V Sunderland WINNABLE - 20 points
Stoke V Reading
Reading V Wigan WINNABLE - 23 points
Everton V Reading
Reading V Aston Villa WINNABLE - 26 points
Man Utd V Reading
Arsenal V Reading
Reading V Southampton WINNABLE -29 points
Reading V Liverpool Draw? - 30 points
Norwich V Reading WINNABLE - 33 points
Reading V QPR WINNABLE - 36 points
Fulham V Reading WINNABLE - 39 points
Reading V Man City
West Ham V Reading Draw? - 40 points


dont think any of those would be outlandish results
though all of them may be a bit of a surprise

It is always fun to speculate and presumably if you had done the same exercise at the start of the season the expectation might have been for about 6 wins by now or at least 4 or 5 wins plus a few more draws.
The fact is that we have 2 wins only so are way below a survival target and the level of form that we need to find now is bordering on that required for a team attempting to qualify for Europe-that really is asking a lot based on a few games where we have played with a defensive strategy and having conceded only 4 goals in those 4 matches we have also only scored 2 and got 5 points.
If ,as many see it,that is an upturn in our form and we maintain that level we will end up with about 20 more points making a final total of around 33 which probably won't be enough so we have to improve some 25% or more on this recent form to have a chance.

New signings by us and the rest of them will make a difference and to what extent nobody knows but for us and/or QPR to survive will require a monumental effort hardly ever seen before at the top level of our game.
I rather like the idea of Reading being history makers but until we find a way of creating more than 2 or 3 goalscoring opportunities per game plus the defence being rock solid consistently and the opposition being prevented from having 20-odd shots per game I think the bookies are about right in making us 1/6 favourites for relegation.

[Mr.T10]

The only thing that is going for us is we got Wigan, Southampton, QPR, Villa and Sunderland all at home. 15 points and all massive 6 pointers.

So hyperthetically if we win all that leaves us with 28 points; knowing us we will lose all these games and win at Man U away.

This leaves us with 12 games which a draw would be a great result. (Now)

I genuinly want to see us get out of it but I don't think we will get enough points away to do so. 37 points might be the target so we will need to win a couple on a the road which at the moment can't see happening as we don't have a match winner in our side like all the other relegation contenders have.

It's not impossible but very unlikely.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Like I said before, to stay up we need a ‘mini’ run that gives us almost half the points we need for survival i.e. 3 or 4 wins in a row. Ideally we want that run to be in a patch of games where we face our relegation rivals so we are stealing points off them.

If by some minor miracle we do manage 7 wins, IMO that would see us over the line.

Looking at the fixtures we’ll know if we have a shot at survival by the end of Feb I would say. Between now & then we face WBA, Newcastle, Sunderland, Stoke & Wigan. If we can’t amass 9-10 points from that lot then surely it’s curtains?!

I know it’s not played on paper but in March we have Everton away, Arsenal away & Utd away. Hmm big fat zero from that lot in all likelihood.

If we’re on say 22 or more points come 1st March we have a shot.

[Woodcote Royal]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

6 wins and 5 draws=36pts........................it's those who think this is impossible who are delusional.

We only have 17 games left.

We still have to play Chelsea (h), Liverpool (h), Man City (h), and away games at Man Utd, Everton, Arsenal (plus five other away games).

Do you really think we can lose only six more games all season?

Having kept a clean for 93mins in arguably the toughest game of the season at Man City, then losing to a dubious goal and, leading at Chelsea but leaving empty handed thanks to an offside goal, not to mention still drawing 7 games so far despite very little luck in our favour, yes, to state the blindlingly obvious, it's far from impossible.

It certainly looks less "impossible" than winning 15? of our last 17? games last season

[Woodcote Royal]

Like I said before, to stay up we need a ‘mini’ run that gives us almost half the points we need for survival i.e. 3 or 4 wins in a row. Ideally we want that run to be in a patch of games where we face our relegation rivals so we are stealing points off them.

If by some minor miracle we do manage 7 wins, IMO that would see us over the line.

Looking at the fixtures we’ll know if we have a shot at survival by the end of Feb I would say. Between now & then we face WBA, Newcastle, Sunderland, Stoke & Wigan. If we can’t amass 9-10 points from that lot then surely it’s curtains?!

I know it’s not played on paper but in March we have Everton away, Arsenal away & Utd away. Hmm big fat zero from that lot in all likelihood.

If we’re on say 22 or more points come 1st March we have a shot.

Agreed. Having home games against most of our relegation rivals is the biggest ace up our sleeve and pinching a point here and there against the top clubs whilst being difficult to beat on our travels might just see us home.

[melonhead]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

Reading V West Brom WINNABLE -16 points
Newcastle V Reading Draw? - 17 points
Reading V Chelsea
Reading V Sunderland WINNABLE - 20 points
Stoke V Reading
Reading V Wigan WINNABLE - 23 points
Everton V Reading
Reading V Aston Villa WINNABLE - 26 points
Man Utd V Reading
Arsenal V Reading
Reading V Southampton WINNABLE -29 points
Reading V Liverpool Draw? - 30 points
Norwich V Reading WINNABLE - 33 points
Reading V QPR WINNABLE - 36 points
Fulham V Reading WINNABLE - 39 points
Reading V Man City
West Ham V Reading Draw? - 40 points


dont think any of those would be outlandish results
though all of them may be a bit of a surprise

It is always fun to speculate and presumably if you had done the same exercise at the start of the season the expectation might have been for about 6 wins by now or at least 4 or 5 wins plus a few more draws.
The fact is that we have 2 wins only so are way below a survival target and the level of form that we need to find now is bordering on that required for a team attempting to qualify for Europe-that really is asking a lot based on a few games where we have played with a defensive strategy and having conceded only 4 goals in those 4 matches we have also only scored 2 and got 5 points.
If ,as many see it,that is an upturn in our form and we maintain that level we will end up with about 20 more points making a final total of around 33 which probably won't be enough so we have to improve some 25% or more on this recent form to have a chance.

.

Hmmmmm so we need to improve massively to stay up? i see.

New signings by us and the rest of them will make a difference and to what extent nobody knows but for us and/or QPR to survive will require a monumental effort hardly ever seen before at the top level of our game.
I rather like the idea of Reading being history makers but until we find a way of creating more than 2 or 3 goalscoring opportunities per game plus the defence being rock solid consistently and the opposition being prevented from having 20-odd shots per game I think the bookies are about right in making us 1/6 favourites for relegation

agreed totally

[Wimb]

It's not impossible but history tells us that it's bloody unlikely.

Before this season there had been just eight teams with 13 points or fewer from 21 games.

Seven of them got relegated, only one survived, West Brom who scraped up with 34 points.

This is just your selective view of "history"

Back on planet earth (and by that I mean the parts where maths is taught to a reasonable standard ) 6 wins and 5 draws from 17 games isn't even close to being impossibe..........................and, at this stage, it's far from impossible that rather less than 36pts will be required for survival......................as Dirk says, who knows? Just those with the poorest grip on basic arithmetic, it would seem

How is that a selective view of history It's stating the fact that of over 400 teams to have played in the Premier League, only 10 have been so bad that they've earned 13 points or less from 21 games. Of those teams, 1 to date has stayed up and if Reading or QPR manage it (or both) it'll be fairly historic.

There's a fairly good reason that the bookmakers have us 1/7 to go down, of course they could be wrong but the fact the bookies survive means that generally they get stuff right.

[Z175]

Intriguingly the 40 point mark is a myth. Since the millennium (i.e. past 13 seasons) only twice has 39 points not been enough, and one of those times 43 was needed.

The average points for the team finishing in 18th is in fact 35 points, so 36 should be the "usual"target - teams could have stayed up with this for 9 out of the past 13 seasons.

However, I think this is a particularly poor season. 6 teams currently have fewer than 1 point per game. Comparing this to the previous 13 seasons, only once (2007-8) were more teams doing as badly at this stage of the season.

In the 5 seasons where 5 or more teams were on under 1 PPG at this stage, (2000-1, 2001-2, 2004-5, 2007-8, 2011-12), the average points for the team finishing 18th was only 34.

Therefore I am comfortable that actually 35 points is likely to be enough. To illustrate this, if you extrapolate perfomance so far you would end up with the less than imposing table below.

15 Newcastle United 36
16 Aston Villa 34
17 Southampton 34
18 Wigan Athletic 33
19 Reading 24
20 Queens Park Rangers 24

You could point out the bottom teams tend to pick up form as the season draws to a close, as they have more to play for than the opposition. This has happened in 7 of the past 13 seasons, but was the other way round in 5. Overall, the average points per game increases for the 18th placed side between 1 Jan and the end of the season, but about 0.1 PPG, so they can expect to pick up an extra 1 or 2 points over the remaining 18 or so games. Looking at Wigan, presently on track for 33 points, you could anticipate them ending up with 34 or 35 points at the end of the season.

However, the obvious point is the remarkable upsurge in form required to even get to 35 points. Yet it would still be less, I imagine, than the post January improvement we've made in each of the last 3 seasons.

We're going to need two unexpected away wins and win 5 more home games (which is possible) So I think we're far from doomed yet. But if we make an incredible effort and get to 35 points, its probably going to be enough.

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

Having kept a clean for 93mins in arguably the toughest game of the season at Man City, then losing to a dubious goal and, leading at Chelsea but leaving empty handed thanks to an offside goal, not to mention still drawing 7 games so far despite very little luck in our favour, yes, to state the blindlingly obvious, it's far from impossible.

It certainly looks less "impossible" than winning 15? of our last 17? games last season

I never said it was impossible, just very unlikely.

Yes, teams can go on amazing runs, but overwhelmingly they tend not to.

What actually is it, beyond blind hope, that has you feeling we can go on a 17 game run of form way beyond the level of our performances so far?


And yes, we've had the odd spot of bad luck. So has virtually everyone else. We're not sat with 13 points from 21 games because we've been unlucky.

[Gunny Fishcake]

I guess that's why football is a fun hobby.

Having read all the bold predictions of survival I've deduced most people on here are on some form of drugs

[tee peg]

I guess that's why football is a fun hobby.

Having read all the bold predictions of survival I've deduced most people on here are on some form of drugs

out of the bottom 3 in February.

[Ian Royal]

I guess that's why football is a fun hobby.

Having read all the bold predictions of survival I've deduced most people on here are on some form of drugs

Can you quote some of these bold predictions of survival, because I've only seen most people say we've got a chance but we're probably still down.