Perspective

[Mr Angry]

Don't you think that a single measurement as to "current form" should be used, otherwise chopping and changing the actual number of games in the sample will distort the results, and make measurement of "current" form almost impossible to quantify relative to "previous" form.

I always thought that current form was the last 6 games; the last 15 games (which seems a tad random) will take us back to - what, Christmas?? Hardly "current" form then is it?

[Snowball]

Don't you think that a single measurement as to "current form" should be used, otherwise chopping and changing the actual number of games in the sample will distort the results, and make measurement of "current" form almost impossible to quantify relative to "previous" form.

I always thought that current form was the last 6 games; the last 15 games (which seems a tad random) will take us back to - what, Christmas?? Hardly "current" form then is it?

This error was made a week ago. I am NOT talking about the PREVIOUS 15 games but the final 15 (1/3 of a season)

With 15 Games to GO, we needed 30 points. Virtually all the sides were on 31 Games Played

READING FC have to get approx 2 points per game for 15 consecutive games, the last 15 games, games 32-46 inclusive.

So far, 5 games in, they have won 3 and drawn 2 so are on 11 points from 5 games, 2.2 ppg
and need 19 from this next, coming up 10 games (1.9 ppg). A draw at Barnsley will mean they are
back to WDWDWD and 2 ppg. A defeat and they will be slightly behind the two ppg (1.85)

if they WIN they'll have 14 points from 6 games = 2.33 ppg on track for 35 from the 15 and 78 points at the finish.

The other clubs have played 6 or 7 games in that time period. (Burnley may have played 7)

[Mr Angry]

Ok, so if we do take the last 6 games as current form, then we are 3rd in it?

Thats excellent, cos IF (big, MASSIVE if obviously) we do get into the Play-offs, we will have some real momentum behind us, and the team that gets promoted comes into those last 2 or 3 games with that sort of momentum.....

[facaldaqui]

Ok, so if we do take the last 6 games as current form, then we are 3rd in it?

Thats excellent, cos IF (big, MASSIVE if obviously) we do get into the Play-offs, we will have some real momentum behind us, and the team that gets promoted comes into those last 2 or 3 games with that sort of momentum.....

Also, I reckon our cup exploits would stand us in good stead in the playoffs. Don't think we'll get there, though.

[Snowball]

Ok, so if we do take the last 6 games as current form, then we are 3rd in it?

Thats excellent, cos IF (big, MASSIVE if obviously) we do get into the Play-offs, we will have some real momentum behind us, and the team that gets promoted comes into those last 2 or 3 games with that sort of momentum.....

Yes, but even better if you just look at all club's final 15 games. Then we are top

But injuries-wise we look in trouble for Saturday

[Snowball]

Form over the final 15 games, with 15 Match Projection*

* I do not mean that I think these runs will continue, but merely what happens IF they do




Played 6 14 Points 2.33 ppg Reading DWDWWW >>>> 35 Points from 15

Played 7 16 Points 2.28 ppg Pompey WWWWLDW >>>> 34 Points from 15
Played 7 16 Points 2.28 ppg QPR..... DWWWLWW 34 Points from 15

Played 7 13 Points 1.87 ppg Norwich DDWDWWD >>> 28 Points from 15
Played 7 13 Points 1.87 ppg Swansea WWWLDLW >>>> 28 Points from 15

Played 7 11 Points 1.56 ppg Watford LDWDWWL >>>>> 23 Points from 15
Played 7 11 Points 1.56 ppg Hull C.. DWLWLWD >>>> 23 Points from 15

Played 7 10 Points 1.42 ppg Burnley LWWWLDL >>>> 21 Points from 15
Played 7 09 Points 1.28 ppg Leeds DDLWWDL >>> 19 Points from 15

Played 7 08 Points 1.14 ppg Millwall LLDLWWD >>>>> 17 Points from 15
Played 7 08 Points 1.14 ppg Cardiff LWWLLDD >>>> 17 Points from 15

Played 7 07 Points 1.00 ppg Leicester WLDLLWL >>>> 15 Points from 15

Played 7 04 Points 0.56 ppg Forest DDDLLDL >>>8 or 9 Points from 15


OUR GAME IN HAND (if it was played this week)

Played 7 17 Points 2.42 ppg Reading DWDWWWW >>>> 36 Points from 15 If we win
Played 7 15 Points 2.14 ppg Reading DWDWWWD >>>>>32 Points from 15 If we draw
Played 7 14 Points 2.00 ppg Reading DWDWWWL >>>>> 30 Points from 15 if we lose to Preston

[Snowball]

This time last season Blackpool were 3 points lower than we are now AND HAD PLAYED TWO GAMES MORE!

07 37 14 15 08 60-42 +18 57 Points Reading 2010-11
07 39 14 12 13 60-50 +10 54 Points Blackpool 2009-10
11 37 14 09 14 50-52 -02 51 Points Reading 2009-10

We are effectively seven points better off than we were last season

We have scored ten more goals and conceded ten less.

[Snowball]

We are 8 points and 22 Goals better GD (effectively 9 points) better off than this time last season

Scored 11 more goals, conceded 11 less goals 22 goals better GD

5 places higher, 8 more points

11 38 14-10-14 51-53 -02 52 Reading
06 38 15-15-08 62-42 +20 60 Reading



27 Points off Second Place (2 GAMES IN HAND) Last Season
10 Points off Second Place (1 GAMES IN HAND) This


1 38 13 5 1 38-12 8 8 03 22-11 +37 76 QPR
2 39 11 5 4 40-25 8 8 03 28-22 +21 70 Norwich City
3 39 11 6 3 36-20 8 3 08 28-27 +17 66 Cardiff City
4 39 12 4 3 29-09 8 2 10 25-29 +16 66 Swansea City
5 39 10 6 4 44-32 7 7 05 29-29 +12 64 Leeds United
6 38 09 7 3 34-19 6 8 05 28-23 +20 60 Reading




1 Newcastle 38 15 4 0 46 9 8 7 4 26 19 +44 80
2 WBA 40 14 2 4 42 20 9 8 3 36 23 +35 79
3 Nottm Forest 39 16 1 3 39 13 4 9 6 16 19 +23 70
4 Cardiff City 39 9 5 5 30 16 9 3 8 35 32 +17 62
5 Swansea City 40 8 9 3 15 11 7 8 5 18 20 +2 62
6 Leicester City 39 10 6 4 30 17 6 7 6 17 21 +9 61
7 Blackpool 40 11 5 4 40 20 4 7 9 22 30 +12 57
8 Doncaster 40 8 7 5 25 21 6 6 8 26 26 +4 55
9 Middlesbrough 40 8 6 6 22 19 6 6 8 31 25 +9 54
10 Sheffield Utd 39 10 7 2 34 19 4 5 11 20 32 +3 54
11 Reading 38 7 7 5 25 19 7 3 9 26 34 -2 52


This time last season Blackpool were 3 points lower than we are now AND HAD PLAYED TWO GAMES MORE!

[Snowball]

We need 4 points from our last 8 games to finish better than last season.

[loyalroyal4life]

5 wins from 8 will see us in the mix

[79Royal]

5 wins from 8 will see us in the mix

That's exactly what I was about to post! And of those 8, three are against the sides currently in the bottom three. Tuesday's game is MASSIVE.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

We need 4 points from our last 8 games to finish better than last season.

Points not position surely?

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

5 wins from 8 will see us in the mix

You would hope, the only guarantee though is to win all the games.

[Ian Royal]

Actually, we only have to win 7 of the remaining 8, because we only have to match the points that Forest get and they only have 7 games left. Burnley would not over take us either even if they won all 8 of theirs.

Barring miraculous goal difference changes of course. And it is hard to see Forest or Burnley making up 10 or 14 goals respectively on us when we'd also be winning most of our games.

[Snowball]

We need 4 points from our last 8 games to finish better than last season.

Points not position surely?

Sorry, yes, I meant points, but probably that will mean position.

We are SO much better as a team than we were last season. I'll be shocked if we aren't at least 10 points better by the end.

Last season's last 8 games we W3 D2 L3 17-10 (13 of our goals coming in 6-0 Peterboro, 3-0 Coventry, 4-1 Derby (all home).

Clearly we were flat-track bullies then, as we lost to Newcastle, Ipswich, Watford, drew with Cardiff, and only managed a draw at Scunthorpe

We have five games against clubs in the bottom 8, and a game against a side bottom of the form table.

League Position of our Opposition

5th, 7th*, 12th, 17th, 19th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th

H Preston 23rd (7th in the form table after suddenly getting 3 straight wins)
A Nottm Forest* 7th (BOTTOM of the current form table)
A Scunthorpe 24th (23rd in the form table)
H Leicester City 12th (18th in the form table)
A Leeds United 5th (8th in the form table)
H Sheffield Utd 22nd (17th in the form table)
A Coventry City 17th (19th in the form table)
H Derby County 19th (22nd in the form table)

6-Game Form of our Opposition

7th, 8th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th.


Even given the above, I still worry. Preston are on a decent run, Leeds look good, and Forest ARE a good side who could beat us. The next two games (almost) make our season. Beat Preston and avoid defeat at Forest and we will look very good indeed, 3 points and much better GD than Forest with just six games to go. But fail to win this game-in-hand and then lose at Forest, and...

[Snowball]

Actually, we only have to win 7 of the remaining 8, because we only have to match the points that Forest get and they only have 7 games left. Burnley would not over take us either even if they won all 8 of theirs. Barring miraculous goal difference changes of course. And it is hard to see Forest or Burnley making up 10 or 14 goals respectively on us when we'd also be winning most of our games.

If Forest beat us (say) 4-0, the GD would be just 2. (Excluding the Preston result)

[Barry the bird boggler]

This is where Heston has to come into his own, he has to ensure minds are not distracted, that each player's concentration is on no more than the next game and every single one of the games will be hard, difficult and in no way simply a matter of turning up!

So, in true Reading style, will it be the perceived tricky bugger games (Forest, Leicester, Leeds) that cost us - or the perceived games where we would be expected to deliver (Preston, Scunthorpe, Sheff U, Coventry, Derby)? Or perhaps a bit of both.

Or will there be a quite sensational end to the season where intention holds through right to the very end.

If the latter, in my opinion, then it would eclipse our last promotion season in so may ways.

Anyway I believe the next 4 games will decide whether we make the play offs or not.

[JC]

If you take the averages since the restructuring of the leagues in 1992 we need 8 points to reach the lowest total that ever made the play-offs, 12 points to reach the average over that time, 16 points to reach the highest that ever was required to reach the play-offs and 22 to be certain.
Statisticallly, therefore, we probably need 5 wins given our superior goal difference. You would think we could get that given we have to play Preston, Scunthorpe, Sheffield United, Coventry and Derby.

[JC]

Did anybody notice that Saturday's result means we cannot be relegated.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Did anybody notice that Saturday's result means we cannot be relegated.

I would imagin that was already true, due to how games fall teams have to play each other, and cannot all get maximum points.