The Battle To Avoid Relegation Thread

[LUX]

Fair enough Cmonurz, my issue is with those who have been downright insulting to our payers, to Brian, to the owners when things were going particularly badly. Those sort can justfuckrightoff.

No idea whether we'll survive btw.

[MartinRdg]

Can't see much wrong with that view at all, I'm just picking up Woodcote on stating people who think we'll go down are talking "bollox".

For me, we have started to play better, and ground out a few results, one a freak win against West Brom. My worry is that in most of those games we have still had much less possession than our opponents, still given up more shots, still spent much of the games on the back foot.

What might the score at Newcastle have looked like had Feds not been back on top form?

Worth repeating once more, just so it's there when Woodcote has another fit - we have given ourselves a good chance of staying up, but I still think we'll go down.

But this tended to be our style of play last season where we had 3 or 4 shots on target and scored 2 or 3 goals. Many times we had less possession than the opponents.

[Millsy]

We are likely to survive I feel or at least give it a good shot. I think 50-50 is a fair assessment if not even more favourable.

1point from safety I hope the owners would see the sense in a moderate gamble financially to give us a real chance of survival. But the player option would have to be available I guess.

[Woodcote Royal]

I'm just picking up Woodcote on stating people who think we'll go down are talking "bollox".

Except, I've never said that.

I've said it's bollox to suggest the odds are still stacked against us.........................they were 4 games ago but not anymore and no "bigger picture"
or bookmakers offering 13/8 (hardly far off 2/1 and I'm guessing these people factor in a margin for themselves)

There's nothing wrong with your opinion, just the nonsense you use to justify it.

[Wimb]

TBF Woodcote the bookies also have us as a 2/5 chance to get relegated, so on that basis they reckon we're about 60% likely to go down, which seems a pretty fair assessment right now.

We've certainly picked up some form but I do question how much of our revival is down to form and how much of it is down to luck finally swinging our way. Ultimately it doesn't matter as long as we survive but I'd still question whether we're that much more likely to pick up three points in these key relegation 'six-pointers' to come.

This mini run has been built on playing sides that are a bit more open and happy to have a go but are we as likely to get as much joy if Southampton come to the Madejski and look for a point? I'm not so sure and I don't think we've added/got the firepower and midfield quality needed to confidently say we'll beat Wigan, Saints, Villa etc.

As cmonurz says, I don't think many of us (betting aside ) want us to go down but I don't think it's outrageous to predict relegation or to have a reasonable critique of certain players/the manager from time to time, after all that's what a discussion forum is for.

[Rex]

Reasonable being the key word there.

[Wimb]

True

The chaps over at the Newcastle SB Nation blog have gone a bit Snowball and are currently projecting us to survive.

http://www.cominghomenewcastle.com/2013 ... fferential

[Hoop Blah]

I think it's a bit churlish to say we've been unlucky (which I think people have mentioned above in relation to some decisions going against us early). As said Wimb says above, good fortune has played a part in our good run of results.

I think anyone bemoaning our lack of luck should remember that we won 3 points at the weekend thanks to an equalising goal where the goalscorer fell over and the ball hit him on the head as he fell and a winner where an attempt at goal was scuffed directly to one of our players. On another day neither of those incidents would've gone our way and we'd possibly have been on the end of a 2-0 defeat.

We've given ourselves a much improved chance with this run of results. That, for me, is about it.

[Ouroboros]

TBF Woodcote the bookies also have us as a 2/5 chance to get relegated, so on that basis they reckon we're about 60% likely to go down, which seems a pretty fair assessment right now.

Apologies for the pedantry, but 2/5 would mean about 70% likely to go down, and that's before you take into account the bookies' cut.

I don't have a problem with people who say we have a "50/50 or better" chance of staying up, except that I wonder why they wouldn't back this intuition, given the price you can get on us.

[Wimb]

TBF Woodcote the bookies also have us as a 2/5 chance to get relegated, so on that basis they reckon we're about 60% likely to go down, which seems a pretty fair assessment right now.

Apologies for the pedantry, but 2/5 would mean about 70% likely to go down, and that's before you take into account the bookies' cut.

I don't have a problem with people who say we have a "50/50 or better" chance of staying up, except that I wonder why they wouldn't back this intuition, given the price you can get on us.

Cheers Ouro, always have a hard time working out odds on odds!

[Mr Irascible]

Had to laugh at the woman on Radio Berks yesterday who reckoned we'd get 36-40 points. WHERE FROM????

There's optimism and there's delusion and I think a lot of fans who think like the above are completely delusional.

Reading V West Brom WINNABLE -16 points
Newcastle V Reading Draw? - 17 points
Reading V Chelsea
Reading V Sunderland WINNABLE - 20 points
Stoke V Reading
Reading V Wigan WINNABLE - 23 points
Everton V Reading
Reading V Aston Villa WINNABLE - 26 points
Man Utd V Reading
Arsenal V Reading
Reading V Southampton WINNABLE -29 points
Reading V Liverpool Draw? - 30 points
Norwich V Reading WINNABLE - 33 points
Reading V QPR WINNABLE - 36 points
Fulham V Reading WINNABLE - 39 points
Reading V Man City
West Ham V Reading Draw? - 40 points


dont think any of those would be outlandish results
though all of them may be a bit of a surprise

So we are already 2 points ahead of this after our two comeback wins. I think a point against Chelsea is there if we fight for it, from then on in I agree with the above with the occasional surprise (a point at Old Trafford or a draw to QPR ).

Norwich have had a poor run, Newcastle are dragged down, QPR have not kicked off under The Great Pretender, Villa may suffer the Capital One backlash, Southampton have the managerial change to cope with, Wigan are right in the mix every year and Fulham have their ups and downs.

The season is not over by a long way. Don't stop believing!!

[tee peg]

[Having read all the bold predictions of survival I've deduced most people on here are on some form of drugs[/quote]

out of the bottom 3 in February.[/quote]

[Extended-Phenotype]

Hmmm. I have a sneaking suspicion our fortunes will change around the home game to West Brom. Think we will go behind in that game but stage a brilliant comeback which will boost the spirit and help us topple Newcastle away and tie with Chelsea at home. From there I can see us beat Sunderland with a late goal, but that’s as far as I can work out at the moment.

[melonhead]

What might the score at Newcastle have looked like had Feds not been back on top form?

what might the score have been if we had no keeper at all?!



we did have a keeer, he played well.
thats the point of him isnt it?
when an outfield player has a blinder, scores a goal, wins the game people dont say " yoah, it was ok, but if kebe hadnt been playing we would have got beaten there"
thats just silly. its a team game, and members of the team have to play well for us to win games

[melonhead]

Hmmm. I have a sneaking suspicion our fortunes will change around the home game to West Brom. Think we will go behind in that game but stage a brilliant comeback which will boost the spirit and help us topple Newcastle away and tie with Chelsea at home. From there I can see us beat Sunderland with a late goal, but that’s as far as I can work out at the moment.

[royal_ross]

May still go down but with games coming up at home vs Wigan, Villa, Southampton & QPR we have it in our hands. More so now Pog is playing much better up front on his own, always thought he tried but wasn't coming off and he looks really into the club. McAnuff in CM looked good, deffo helped Pog and Kebe well what can you say?

We'll give it our best shot, may not be enough but In Brian We Trust!

[Ian Royal]

What might the score at Newcastle have looked like had Feds not been back on top form?

what might the score have been if we had no keeper at all?!



we did have a keeer, he played well.
thats the point of him isnt it?
when an outfield player has a blinder, scores a goal, wins the game people dont say " yoah, it was ok, but if kebe hadnt been playing we would have got beaten there"
thats just silly. its a team game, and members of the team have to play well for us to win games

Agree - what would the table have looked like if Feds hadn't spilled shots against Chelsea and Stoke and the linesman hadn't given onside for a clearly offside goal against Chelsea

We could be in 7th.

coulda woulda shoulda. It's the points on the board that count.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Notice on MOTD on BBC website Shearer and Savage have done their end of season table.

Shearer has us coming in at 18th and Savage sees us surviving in 16th.

Shearer predictably has Newcastle finishing top half

Both have QPR finishing bottom

[Scutterbucketz]

I always liked Savage.

[Arch]

Things i like about our run in: in addition to playing each of the other bottom five clubs at home, we have interesting aways against Stoke, Fulham and Norwich. Win any one of those - particularly either of the latter two - and we don't only do ourselves a massive favour but put pressure on them too. Even three wins, two draws and two defeats from those seven gives us 34 points without taking into account any of our other games. Not bad.